What The Hill Ledger does

Who is trading: disclosures and flows

Every filing keeps its trade date, its disclosure date and the lag between them.

• Members of Congress. House and Senate periodic transaction reports, read from the House Clerk and the Senate’s eFD site, including scanned paper filings; late filings are flagged.
• The Executive branch. A register of disclosures from Office of Government Ethics filings.
• Corporate insiders. SEC Form 4 open-market purchases and sales, each marked when it was made under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan; awards, option exercises and tax withholding stay out of the totals, and one trade filed by joint owners counts once.
• Fund managers. Quarterly SEC 13F holdings for the managers the site tracks.
• Japan. EDINET 5% large-holding reports, each stake change valued at the reported price or that day’s close, and a directory of Diet members.
• Taiwan. Company insiders’ declared transfer plans and monthly holding changes from TWSE, TPEx and MOPS, and the exchanges’ daily institutional flows.
• Lobbying and federal contracts. On US stock pages: the company’s federal lobbying reported under the Lobbying Disclosure Act, and its federal contract awards from USAspending.gov.

What analysts expect

On US stock pages, refreshed daily.

• Price targets. The analysts’ consensus, median, high and low targets, set against the latest close.
• Estimates. Forward revenue and earnings-per-share estimates for the next fiscal years, with their ranges and the number of analysts.
• Ratings and surprises. Monthly counts of buy, hold and sell ratings, and reported earnings against the estimate for the last four quarters.

What the company earns: fundamentals

• Company scores. US companies scored from 0 to 100 on profitability, growth, financial strength, consistency and value, each ranked against S&P 500 companies in the same industry, from the companies’ own SEC filings and refreshed the day they report.
• Fair-value check. A discounted-cash-flow estimate for US companies from their own free cash flow and revenue growth, with a grid of discount and growth rates and the growth the current price implies; banks and insurers, and companies with negative free cash flow, are left out.
• Screener and comparison. Filter US companies by sector or S&P 500 membership, sort them by score, size or recent insider and member trades, and compare up to four side by side.
• Taiwan. Monthly revenue and quarterly statements for Taiwan’s listed companies, used in the Taiwan column and by the assistant.

What the price says: charts, signals and forecasts

• Charts. Daily price charts, as lines or candlesticks, with every disclosed trade marked on the day it happened.
• Chart patterns. New 52-week highs and lows, golden and death crosses, breakouts from the 20-day range, price gaps, double tops and bottoms, and support and resistance levels, found mechanically from the daily prices on every stock page with a year of history.
• 28 backtested signals. Moving-average crosses, RSI, MACD, Bollinger bands, Ichimoku, Donchian and Turtle breakouts, Keltner channels, ADX, Supertrend, Aroon, momentum and mean reversion, plus two that follow what Congress and insiders disclose.
• Tested against holding. Every model replayed over 1, 3, 5 and 10 years at each market’s trading fees, next to simply holding the stock, with what 1,000,000 in local currency would have become.
• Forecast ranges. Scenarios from 30 days to a year: 68% and 90% ranges pooled from five statistical models and checked against the stock’s own history.
• Market Indicator and suggestions. Sentiment for the US, Japanese and Taiwanese markets by theme and sector, and short and long-term picks tested month by month before they are shown.

Ask about what you see: the AI research assistant

• Questions on any stock or filer page. The page’s filings (marked when made under a Rule 10b5-1 plan), prices and chart patterns, financials and fair-value check, analysts’ figures, lobbying and contracts, backtests and headlines go with your question, so the answer works from the same numbers you see.
• Your own key. Bring an Anthropic Claude, Google Gemini or OpenAI key and choose any of its text models: the key is tested, encrypted on our server and never shown again, and your provider bills you directly.
• Careful answers. The model is told to use the page’s figures exactly, to say when the data cannot settle a question (comparing with earlier years when the page holds only the last one, for example) and never to tell you to buy or sell.

Reading and following

• A daily column. One for each edition, written from the day’s filings and checked figure by figure, in English, Japanese and Traditional Chinese.
• Timeline and directory. Who traded what, and when, on one time axis; follow any filer to get their new filings by email.
• Alerts and portfolio. Emails when the people you follow file or when a stock’s signal flips, and a portfolio with sell-side alerts.
• Three editions. United States, Japan and Taiwan, with amounts in dollars, yen or Taiwan dollars.
• News in your language. Headlines and summaries from the US, Japan and Taiwan, machine-translated into English, Japanese or Traditional Chinese when written in another, each marked as translated and linked to the original article.

Where the numbers come from

The House Clerk and the Senate’s eFD site; the Office of Government Ethics; SEC EDGAR (Form 4, 13F and company financial data); Japan’s EDINET; TWSE, TPEx, MOPS, TAIFEX and Taiwan’s central bank, with history from FinMind; Yahoo Finance prices; Financial Modeling Prep and Finnhub for analysts’ figures; Senate lobbying disclosures and USAspending.gov, via Finnhub; and news from CNBC, MarketWatch, The Japan Times, Google News and Yahoo Finance. Disclosed amounts are ranges, so the figures are estimates. Nothing here is investment advice.